Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #20 (division championship games) of the 2024 season.

Zoltar:      chiefs  by    6  dog =      texans    Vegas:      chiefs  by    8
Zoltar:       lions  by    9  dog =  commanders    Vegas:       lions  by    9
Zoltar:      eagles  by    6  dog =        rams    Vegas:      eagles  by    6
Zoltar:       bills  by    2  dog =      ravens    Vegas:      ravens  by    0

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. For this season I’ve been using a conservative threshold of 4 points difference in the early and late parts of the season, and a more aggressive threshold of 3 points difference in the middle of the season.

For week #20 Zoltar agrees closely with the Las Vegas point spread, meaning all of Zoltar’s predictions are 4 points or less than the Vegas point spread.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

In week #19, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went 1-0 using 4.0 points as the advice threshold. Zoltar correctly predicted that the Houston Texans would beat the Vegas-favorite LA Chargers, and the Texans did win rather easily by a score of 32-12.

For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 46-27 (~63% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #19, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 5-1, which is very good. Vegas was only 3-3 at just predicting the winning team. I speculate that in the playoffs, bettors start wagering with their hearts instead of the rational part of their brains.

My system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. I’ve always been fascinated by mechanical fortune tellers. Artist Thomas Kuntz makes incredible automata, including this “L’Oracle du Mort”. The user inserts a small card, with a question like “How rich will I be?” into a tray at the front of the machine. The magician / oracle figure comes to life and consults his crystal ball, lights a flame, and opens the circular door held by the skeleton to reveal the answer. You can see the machine in action at youtube.com/watch?v=GI1LnFUSejU. The machine is owned by Oscar-winning movie director Guillermo del Toro.