Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of quasi-reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #9 of the 2025 season.

Zoltar:      ravens  by    0  opp =    dolphins    | Vegas:      ravens  by  5.5
Zoltar:     packers  by   10  opp =    panthers    | Vegas:     packers  by  7.5
Zoltar:     broncos  by    0  opp =      texans    | Vegas:     broncos  by  1.5
Zoltar:     bengals  by    4  opp =       bears    | Vegas:     bengals  by    3
Zoltar:       lions  by    6  opp =     vikings    | Vegas:       lions  by  4.5
Zoltar:    patriots  by    4  opp =     falcons    | Vegas:    patriots  by    3
Zoltar: fortyniners  by    0  opp =      giants    | Vegas: fortyniners  by  3.5
Zoltar:       colts  by    0  opp =    steelers    | Vegas:    steelers  by  3.5
Zoltar:    chargers  by    7  opp =      titans    | Vegas:    chargers  by  4.5
Zoltar:        rams  by   11  opp =      saints    | Vegas:        rams  by  9.5
Zoltar:     jaguars  by    0  opp =     raiders    | Vegas:     raiders  by  1.5
Zoltar:      chiefs  by    0  opp =       bills    | Vegas:       bills  by  2.5
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    0  opp =  commanders    | Vegas:  commanders  by  5.5
Zoltar:     cowboys  by    5  opp =   cardinals    | Vegas:     cowboys  by  1.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. In mid-season I typically use 3.0 points difference but for the first few weeks of the season I am a bit more conservative and use 4.0 points difference as the advice threshold criterion.

For week #9, using my typical 3.0 points threshold, Zoltar likes four Vegas underdogs and one favorite:

ravens       at     dolphins: Bet on Vegas underdog dolphins
fortyniners  at       giants: Bet on Vegas underdog giants
colts        at     steelers: Bet on Vegas underdog colts
seahawks     at   commanders: Bet on Vegas underdog seahawks
cardinals    at      cowboys: Bet on Vegas favorite cowboys

None of these three suggestions are very strong however. Note: The Ravens-Dolphins game is “off” for Zoltar because of a key injury/return (quarterback or center or middle linebacker or string safety).

A bet on the Vegas underdog Dolphins against the Ravens will pay off if the Dolphins win by any score, or if the favored Ravens win but by less than 5.5 points (i.e., exactly 5 points or less). If a favored team wins by exactly the point spread, the wager is a push. This is why point spreads often have a 0.5 added — called “the hook” — to eliminate pushes.

I use the early Vegas point spreads, usually posted on late Monday night, right after the Monday Night Football game. By the time you read this, the point spreads will likely have changed. I’ve noticed that, compared to previous years, point spreads are changing more dramatically by late Tuesdays than they used to. A swing of 7 points is not uncommon. I speculate that this is due to a huge increase in betting. When a lot of money is bet on one team in a matchup, the bookmakers must make a huge change in the point spread to encourage betting on the other team. Bookmakers only make money when the betting amounts are close to equal on both teams.

Week #9 often marks the beginning of the part of the season where injuries start to become a big factor.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better, to account for overhead and miscellaneous mistakes.

In week #8, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went 3-2 (using 3.0 points as the advice threshold). For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 21-13 (~61% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #8, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 9-2 with 2 games too close to call, which is quite good. Vegas also was pretty good, going 10-3, at just predicting the winning team.

My Zoltar system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. Halloween is coming up in a few days. Here are three clever Zoltar-inspired do-it-yourself costumes.