Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #20 (division championship games) of the 2025 season.

Zoltar:     broncos  by    4  opp =       bills    | Vegas:     broncos  by    1
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    6  opp = fortyniners    | Vegas:    seahawks  by  7.5
Zoltar:      texans  by    0  opp =    patriots    | Vegas:    patriots  by  2.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    0  opp =       bears    | Vegas:        rams  by    4

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. For this season I’ve been using a conservative threshold of 4 points difference in the early and late parts of the season, and a more aggressive threshold of 3 points difference in the middle of the season.

For week #20 Zoltar agrees closely with the Las Vegas point spread, meaning all of Zoltar’s predictions are 4 points or less than the Vegas point spread. But if forced to make a recommendation, Zoltar would suggest a bet on the Vegas underdog Chicago Bears against the Los Angeles Rams.

Zoltar thinks the game is dead even, but Vegas favors the Rams by 4 points. A bet on the underdog Bears will pay if the Bears win by any score, or if the Rams win but by less than 4.0 points (i.e., 3 points or less). If the Rams win by exactly 4 points, all bets are a push.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better to account for logisitics and things like data entry errors.

In week #19, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went 1-0 using 4.0 points as the advice threshold. Zoltar liked underdog Panthers against the Rams. The Rams won the game 34-31 but they did not cover the 10.0 point spread.

For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 47-30 (~61% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In the week #19 wildcard games, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 3-1 with 2 games too close to call. Vegas had an excellent week, going 5-1 at just predicting the winning team.

I speculate that in the playoffs, bettors start wagering with their hearts instead of the rational part of their brains.

My system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. I’ve always been fascinated by mechanical fortune tellers. Artist Thomas Kuntz makes incredible automata, including this “L’Oracle du Mort”. The user inserts a small card, with a question like “How rich will I be?” into a tray at the front of the machine. The magician / oracle figure comes to life and consults his crystal ball, lights a flame, and opens the circular door held by the skeleton to reveal the answer. See the machine in action at youtube.com/watch?v=GI1LnFUSejU. The machine is currently owned by Oscar-winning director Guillermo del Toro.