Zoltar is my NFL prediction computer program. It uses a deep neural network and reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #15 of the 2019 NFL season:

Zoltar:      ravens  by   18  dog =        jets    Vegas:      ravens  by 14.5
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    5  dog =    panthers    Vegas:    seahawks  by  5.5
Zoltar:    patriots  by   12  dog =     bengals    Vegas:    patriots  by  9.5
Zoltar:  buccaneers  by    0  dog =       lions    Vegas:  buccaneers  by    4
Zoltar:     packers  by    4  dog =       bears    Vegas:     packers  by    5
Zoltar:      chiefs  by   10  dog =     broncos    Vegas:      chiefs  by 11.5
Zoltar:    dolphins  by    0  dog =      giants    Vegas:      giants  by  3.5
Zoltar:      texans  by    0  dog =      titans    Vegas:      titans  by    3
Zoltar:    steelers  by    6  dog =       bills    Vegas:    steelers  by  1.5
Zoltar:      eagles  by    1  dog =    redskins    Vegas:      eagles  by    6
Zoltar:      browns  by    4  dog =   cardinals    Vegas:      browns  by  2.5
Zoltar:     raiders  by    6  dog =     jaguars    Vegas:     raiders  by  5.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    0  dog =     cowboys    Vegas:     cowboys  by    2
Zoltar: fortyniners  by   10  dog =     falcons    Vegas: fortyniners  by   11
Zoltar:     vikings  by    0  dog =    chargers    Vegas:     vikings  by    3
Zoltar:      saints  by   10  dog =       colts    Vegas:      saints  by    8

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is more than 3.0 points different from Zoltar’s prediction. For week #15 Zoltar has five hypothetical suggestions – three Vegas underdogs and two Vegas favorites.

1. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Ravens against the Jets. Zoltar thinks the Ravens are a huge 18 points better than the Jets but Vegas thinks the Ravens are “only” 14.0 points better.

2. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Lions against the Buccaneers. Zoltar thinks the two teams are evenly matched but Vegas has the Bucaneers favored by 4.0 points.

3. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Dolphins against the Giants. Zoltar thinks the two teams are evenly matched but Vegas says the Giants will win by 3.5 points.

4. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Steelers against the Bills. Zoltar thinks the Steelers are 6 points better than the Bills but Vegas thinks the Steelers are only 1.5 points better.

5. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Redskins against the Eagles. Zoltar thinks the Eagles are just 1 point better than the Eagles but Vegas says the Eagles will win by 6.0 points.

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Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

Zoltar was pretty good in week #14, going 6-2 against the Vegas point spread. Zoltar correctly liked Vegas underdogs Bears, Redskins, Lions, Dolphins, Colts, and Vegas favorite Steelers, but missed by liking underdog Bills and favorite Saints.

For the 2019 season, through week #14, Zoltar is 46-25 (64% accuracy) against the Vegas spread.

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar and Las Vegas do when just trying to predict only which team will win (but not by how much). This isn’t useful except for parlay betting.

Just predicting winners, Zoltar was a decent 11-5. Las Vegas was also 11-5 at just predicting winners (even though Zoltar and Vegas slightly disagreed in their picks to win).

For the season Zoltar is a pretty decent 141-66 (68%) just picking winners and Vegas is nearly the same at 132-72 (64%).

Note: Vegas has had three pick’em games so far and there has been one tie game.

My system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. Mechanical fortune telling devices have been around for many decades. Here are three images I found by searching the Internet for “antique fortune telling machine”.