Zoltar is my NFL prediction computer program. It uses reinforcement learning and a neural network. It usually takes Zoltar about three weeks to hit his stride, but here are his predictions for week #1 of the 2020 NFL season:

Zoltar:      chiefs  by    6  dog =      texans    Vegas:      chiefs  by   10
Zoltar:     jaguars  by    1  dog =       colts    Vegas:       colts  by  7.5
Zoltar:    patriots  by   10  dog =    dolphins    Vegas:    patriots  by  6.5
Zoltar:     packers  by    0  dog =     vikings    Vegas:     vikings  by  3.5
Zoltar:       bears  by    0  dog =       lions    Vegas:       lions  by  1.5
Zoltar:      ravens  by   11  dog =      browns    Vegas:      ravens  by  7.5
Zoltar:      eagles  by    3  dog =    redskins    Vegas:      eagles  by  5.5
Zoltar:     raiders  by    0  dog =    panthers    Vegas:    panthers  by  1.5
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    0  dog =     falcons    Vegas:    seahawks  by  1.5
Zoltar:       bills  by    6  dog =        jets    Vegas:       bills  by  6.5
Zoltar:    chargers  by    0  dog =     bengals    Vegas:    chargers  by  3.5
Zoltar: fortyniners  by   10  dog =   cardinals    Vegas: fortyniners  by  7.5
Zoltar:      saints  by    9  dog =  buccaneers    Vegas:      saints  by  4.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    5  dog =     cowboys    Vegas:     cowboys  by  2.5
Zoltar:    steelers  by    0  dog =      giants    Vegas:    steelers  by  3.5
Zoltar:      titans  by    0  dog =     broncos    Vegas:     broncos  by  2.5

Note: I originally had a bad data file. These are the revised predictions, made using correct data.

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is more than 3.0 points different from Zoltar’s prediction. For week #1 Zoltar has eight tentative suggestions. However, week #1 is a lot of guesswork because Zoltar’s first-week predictions are based on each team’s performance in the previous year.

1. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Texans against the Chiefs.
2. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Jaguars against the Colts.
3. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Patriots over the Dolphins.
4. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Packers against the Vikings
5. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Ravens over the Browns.
6. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Bengals against the Chargers.
7. Zoltar likes the Vegas favorite Saints over the Buccaneers.
8. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Rams against the Cowboys.
9. Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Giants against the Steelers.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. I’ll post results next week.

Zoltar sometimes predicts a 0-point margin of victory. There are four such games in week #1. In those situations, to pick a winner (only so I can track raw number of correct predictions) in the first four weeks of the season, Zoltar picks the home team to win.

My Zoltar system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in many arcades. Until recently, the Zoltar machine was not well-known to the general public, but the Zoltar machine has appeared in many TV commercials recently and so Zoltar (the machine) is familiar to most people. Before TV, most people were first exposed to the idea of a crystal ball fortune teller via movies.