Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a variation of reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #2 of the 2023 season. These predictions are fuzzy, in the sense that it usually takes Zoltar about four weeks to hit his stride.

Zoltar:      eagles  by    6  dog =     vikings    Vegas:      eagles  by    7
Zoltar:     falcons  by    2  dog =     packers    Vegas:     packers  by    1
Zoltar:       bills  by    9  dog =     raiders    Vegas:       bills  by    9
Zoltar:     bengals  by    6  dog =      ravens    Vegas:     bengals  by  3.5
Zoltar:       lions  by    6  dog =    seahawks    Vegas:       lions  by    6
Zoltar:      texans  by    1  dog =       colts    Vegas:       colts  by    1
Zoltar:      chiefs  by    0  dog =     jaguars    Vegas:      chiefs  by    3
Zoltar:    chargers  by    0  dog =      titans    Vegas:    chargers  by    3
Zoltar:  buccaneers  by    9  dog =       bears    Vegas:  buccaneers  by    3
Zoltar:      giants  by    1  dog =   cardinals    Vegas:      giants  by    4
Zoltar: fortyniners  by    4  dog =        rams    Vegas: fortyniners  by    8
Zoltar:     cowboys  by    6  dog =        jets    Vegas:     cowboys  by  3.5
Zoltar:  commanders  by    0  dog =     broncos    Vegas:     broncos  by  3.5
Zoltar:    dolphins  by    0  dog =    patriots    Vegas:    dolphins  by    2
Zoltar:      saints  by    0  dog =    panthers    Vegas:      saints  by    3
Zoltar:    steelers  by    4  dog =      browns    Vegas:      browns  by    2

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. In mid-season I typically use 3.0 points difference but for the first few weeks of the season I usually go a bit more conservative and use 4.0 points difference as the advice threshold criterion.

For week #2 using a conservative 4.0 point threshold:

bears          at     buccaneers : bet favorite buccaneers
browns         at       steelers : bet underdog steelers

For week #2 using a liberal 2.5 point threshold:

packers        at        falcons : bet underdog falcons
chiefs         at        jaguars : bet underdog jaguars
chargers       at         titans : bet underdog titans
bears          at     buccaneers : bet favorite buccaneers
giants         at      cardinals : bet underdog cardinals
fortyniners    at           rams : bet underdog rams
commanders     at        broncos : bet underdog commanders
saints         at       panthers : bet underdog panthers
browns         at       steelers : bet underdog steelers

For example, a bet on the underdog Titans against the Chargers will pay off if the Titans win by any score, or if the favored Chargers win but by less than 3.0 points (in other words, by 2 points or less). If the Chargers win by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

In week #1, against the Vegas point spread, using a liberal 3.0 point threshold, Zoltar went 6-6.

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #1, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 9-7 which isn’t very good but is typical of the first few weeks of the season. Just predicting which team will win, Vegas went 10-6.

My NFL prediction system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. Left: A Zoltar machine outside of Houdini’s Magic Shop in the New York New York hotel in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, that magic shop is gone now, a victim of the covid pandemic economic fallout. Center: Wagering on NFL games is a multi-billion dollar business. This is a photo of the sports book (betting area) at the MGM Grand hotel in Las Vegas. Right: This is a sheet where you can see the point spread for a given week. You can place a bet by going to a person at a desk in the sports book, or you can place a bet using a terminal or online.