Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #21 (conference championship games) of the 2024 season.

Zoltar:      eagles  by    6  dog =  commanders    Vegas:      eagles  by  5.5
Zoltar:      chiefs  by    4  dog =       bills    Vegas:      chiefs  by    2

Zoltar agrees closely with Las Vegas. Zoltar likes the Kansas City Chiefs slightly more (by 2 points) than Vegas.

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. I use a conservative threshold of 4 points difference in the beginning and end of the season, and a more aggressive threshold of 3 points in the middle of the season.

Because Zoltar’s two predictions are so close to the Vegas point spread, Zoltar has no advice this week. If Zoltar was forced to make a recommendation, he’d suggest betting on the Chiefs against the Bills, thinking that the Chiefs will cover the 2-point Vegas spread.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

In week #20, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went 0-0 using 4.0 points as the advice threshold because the all of Zoltar’s predictions were within 4 points of the Vegas point spread.

For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 46-27 (~63% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #20, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 3-1 which is about average. Vegas was also 3-1 at just predicting the winning team. Both Zoltar and Vegas figured that the #1 seed Detroit Lions would beat the Washington Commanders, but the Lions collapsed and the Commanders won by a score of 45-31. Poor, sad, Lions.

My prediction system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades. I am not embarrassed to admit that I like old animated cartoons, at least those that are aimed at an adult audience as well as children.

Right: A scene from “The Weather Lady” (1963) episode of the Rocky and Bullwinkle show. The citizens of Frostbite Falls buy a fortune teller to predict the weather. The machine is stolen by Boris Badenov and Natasha Fatale.