Zoltar is my computer program that predicts the results of NFL football games. The 2024 season finished a few weeks ago when the slight-underdog Philadelphia Eagles (1.5 points) beat the slight-favorite Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 40-22 on Sunday, February 9, 2025 in Super Bowl LIX.

I figured I’d look back at the 2024 season and analyze the strategy of betting on the home team when that team is the Vegas favorite.

Suppose the Rams are playing at home against the Seahawks, and Vegas has the Rams favored by 7.0 points (“Rams -7” in Vegas terminology). A bet on the home favorite Rams will win only if the Rams win by more than point spread. If the Rams lose by any score, or if the Rams win but by less than the point spread of 7, the bet on the Rams loses. If the Rams win by exactly the point spread, for example 27-20, then the bet on the Rams is a push.

My analysis shows that, for the 2024 season, betting on the home favorite team would have won 81 times and lost 74 times, for an accuracy of 81/155 which is about 52%. This is not quite break-even because of the house edge. Typically, you must bet $110 in order to win just $100, which is a house advantage of about 53%, but in practical terms you really must win with about 60% accuracy to be profitable.

Some sample output from the analysis:

. . .
2024 week: 18

Team 24 ravens is a home favorite
Team 4 browns is a visiting underdog
Home/favorite score = 35
Visitor/underdog score =  10
Home/favorite pred margin victory  = 15.0
Home favorite won and beat spread!

Team 13 falcons is a home favorite
Team 20 panthers is a visiting underdog
Home/favorite score = 38
Visitor/underdog score =  44
Home/favorite pred margin victory  = 7.0
Home favorite outright lost

Team 9 colts is a home favorite
Team 16 jaguars is a visiting underdog
Home/favorite score = 26
Visitor/underdog score =  23
Home/favorite pred margin victory  = 5.0
Home favorite won but didn't beat spread

. . .

Team 18 lions is a home favorite
Team 31 vikings is a visiting underdog
Home/favorite score = 31
Visitor/underdog score =  9
Home/favorite pred margin victory  = 3.0
Home favorite won and beat spread!

=====
2024 Summary:
Total times bet on Vegas home favorite wins against spread = 81
Total times bet on Vegas home favorite loses against spread = 74

The analysis of bet-home-favorite strategy also gives you the bet-visitor-underdog results: win 74 times, lose 81 times = 48% accuracy

The results did not surprise me. Using any of the four simple strategies — bet home favorite, bet home underdog, bet visitor favorite, bet visitor underdog — depends on the accuracy of the Vegas point spread. Because millions of people bet hundreds of millions of dollars on NFL football games, overall, the Vegas point spread is remarkably accurate.

If any simple strategy worked (meaning win more than 60% of the time), then it would be well known, and the Vegas point spread would instantly adapt.

Anyway, good fun and a nice look back at the 2024 NFL football season.

The current NFL has two conferences: the AFC and the NFC. In 1960, there was only the NFL. A rival league, the AFL, was formed in 1960 and operated from 1960 to 1970, and then the two leagues then merged.

Left: Chargers quarterback John Hadl wore the unusual number 21. I thought that was very cool. Center: Raiders quarterback Tom Flores had great success as a coach after his playing days. Right: Chiefs quarterback Len Dawson was really good, played for 19 seasons, and won Super Bowl IV.