Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of quasi-reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #7 of the 2025 season.

Zoltar:    steelers  by    0  opp =     bengals    | Vegas:     bengals  by  4.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    3  opp =     jaguars    | Vegas:        rams  by  4.5
Zoltar:       bears  by    6  opp =      saints    | Vegas:       bears  by  7.5
Zoltar:      chiefs  by   12  opp =     raiders    | Vegas:      chiefs  by  9.5
Zoltar:     vikings  by    2  opp =      eagles    | Vegas:      eagles  by    3
Zoltar:    patriots  by    1  opp =      titans    | Vegas:    patriots  by  1.5
Zoltar:    dolphins  by    0  opp =      browns    | Vegas:    dolphins  by  1.5
Zoltar:    panthers  by    0  opp =        jets    | Vegas:        jets  by  1.5
Zoltar:    chargers  by    4  opp =       colts    | Vegas:    chargers  by    6
Zoltar:     broncos  by   10  opp =      giants    | Vegas:     broncos  by  7.5
Zoltar:     packers  by    2  opp =   cardinals    | Vegas:     packers  by  1.5
Zoltar:  commanders  by    0  opp =     cowboys    | Vegas:  commanders  by  2.5
Zoltar:     falcons  by    0  opp = fortyniners    | Vegas: fortyniners  by  6.5
Zoltar:       lions  by    6  opp =  buccaneers    | Vegas:       lions  by  3.5
Zoltar:    seahawks  by    6  opp =      texans    | Vegas:    seahawks  by  1.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. In mid-season I typically use a 3.0 points difference but for the first few weeks of the season I am usually a bit more conservative and use a 4.0 points difference as the advice threshold criterion.

For week #7, using 3.0 points as the threshold, Zoltar likes three Vegas underdogs and one Vegas favorite:

steelers     at      bengals: Bet on Vegas underdog steelers
eagles       at      vikings: Bet on Vegas underdog vikings
falcons      at  fortyniners: Bet on Vegas underdog falcons
texans       at     seahawks: Bet on Vegas favorite seahawks

For example, a bet on the underdog Steelers against the Bengals will pay off if the Steelers win by any score, or if the favored Bengals win but by less than 4.5 points (in other words, by 4 points or less). If a favored team wins by exactly the point spread, the wager is a push. This is why point spreads often have a 0.5 added — called “the hook” – to avoid ties.

This is an interesting part of the season for Zoltar. Zoltar has enough data to start getting more accurate, but humans have a lot of information too, including injuries, team chemistry, and so on. For week #7, Zoltar picks the underdog Falcons to hold the favored 49ers to under the 6.5 point spread — Brock Purdy, the 49ers quarterback who has been injured, is expected to return to play, which gave a big boost to the 49ers. Zoltar is skeptical.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better, to take into account things like overhead and careless mistakes.

In week #6, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went a very good 6-2 (using a mildly aggressive 3.0 points as the advice threshold).

For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 16-9 (64% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #6, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went only 7-4 (with 4 games too close to call) which is not good but not terrible. Vegas was 8-7 at just predicting the winning team.

Football has been popular in the U.S. for a long time. Here are two old pinball style games that have a football theme.

Right: “Army-Navy” by Rock-Ola (1934). This was an amazing, purely mechanical (no electricity) game. A ball is launched into the top playing surface where it drops into a hole that scores yards for Army or Navy. The yellow ball-marker on the lower playing field automatically moves the associated number of yards. When the ball-marker reaches an end zone, 7 points are scored for the appropriate team. Fascinating!