Zoltar is my NFL football prediction computer program. It uses a neural network and a type of quasi-reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #9 of the 2026 season.

Zoltar:     jaguars  by    4  opp =      ravens    | Vegas:     jaguars  by  9.5
Zoltar:     bengals  by    3  opp =     falcons    | Vegas:     bengals  by  3.5
Zoltar:       colts  by    2  opp =     cowboys    | Vegas:     cowboys  by  5.5
Zoltar:        rams  by    3  opp =  commanders    | Vegas:        rams  by  5.5
Zoltar:      browns  by    0  opp =      saints    | Vegas:      saints  by  2.5
Zoltar:      chiefs  by   10  opp =        jets    | Vegas:      chiefs  by  9.5
Zoltar:       lions  by    3  opp =    dolphins    | Vegas:       lions  by  7.5
Zoltar:     broncos  by    4  opp =    panthers    | Vegas:     broncos  by  2.5
Zoltar:      eagles  by    6  opp =      giants    | Vegas:      giants  by  3.5
Zoltar:      texans  by    0  opp =    chargers    | Vegas:      texans  by  4.5
Zoltar: fortyniners  by   11  opp =     raiders    | Vegas: fortyniners  by  9.5
Zoltar:    patriots  by    6  opp =     packers    | Vegas:    patriots  by  2.5
Zoltar:    seahawks  by   11  opp =   cardinals    | Vegas:    seahawks  by 10.5
Zoltar:       bears  by    8  opp =  buccaneers    | Vegas:       bears  by  5.5
Zoltar:       bills  by    0  opp =     vikings    | Vegas:       bills  by  2.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is “significantly” different from Zoltar’s prediction. In mid-season I typically use 4.5 points difference but for the first few weeks of the season I am a bit more aggressive and use 3.5 points difference as the advice threshold criterion.

For week #9, using my typical 4.5 points mid-season threshold, Zoltar likes three Vegas underdogs:

jaguars      at       ravens: Bet on Vegas underdog ravens
cowboys      at        colts: Bet on Vegas underdog colts
giants       at       eagles: Bet on Vegas underdog eagles

A bet on the Vegas underdog Ravens against the Jaguars will pay off if the Ravens win by any score, or if the favored Jaguars win but by less than 9.5 points (i.e., exactly 9 points or less). If a favored team wins by exactly the point spread, the wager is a push. This is why point spreads often have a 0.5 added — called “the hook” — to eliminate pushes.

I use the early Vegas point spreads, usually posted on late Monday night, right after the Monday Night Football game. By the time you read this, the point spreads will likely have changed. I’ve noticed that, compared to previous years, point spreads are changing more dramatically by late Tuesdays than they used to. A swing of 7 points is not uncommon. I speculate that this is due to a huge increase in betting. When a lot of money is bet on one team in a matchup, the bookmakers must make a huge change in the point spread to encourage betting on the other team. Bookmakers only make money when the betting amounts are close to equal on both teams.

Week #9 often marks the beginning of the part of the season where injuries start to become a big factor. For example, the Ravens starting QB is out which is part of the reason they are such huge 9.5 point Vegas underdogs.

Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better, to account for overhead and miscellaneous mistakes.

In week #8, against the Vegas point spread, Zoltar went 2-0 (using 4.5 points as the advice threshold). For the season, against the spread, Zoltar is 14-6 (70% accuracy).

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar does when just trying to predict just which team will win a game. This isn’t useful except for parlay betting. In week #8, just predicting the winning team, Zoltar went 9-2 with 3 games too close to call, which is very good. Vegas also was pretty good, going 10-4, at just predicting the winning team.

Left: My system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine you can find in arcades.

Right: Uncle Sam’s Philosophy machine from the late 1800s was produced by the Automatic Amusement Co. of London. The spinner pointed to one of 18 rhyming predictions such as, “To-morrow going down the street, an ancient lover you will meet.” The machine reads “Consultation Fee 1D” which confused me until I discovered that D, from “denarius” (Latin for coin) was the old UK abbreviation for penny.