Zoltar is my NFL prediction computer program. It uses a deep neural network and reinforcement learning. Here are Zoltar’s predictions for week #20 (Conference championships) of the 2019 NFL season:

Zoltar:      chiefs  by    6  dog =      titans    Vegas:      chiefs  by  7.5
Zoltar: fortyniners  by    1  dog =     packers    Vegas: fortyniners  by  7.5

Zoltar theoretically suggests betting when the Vegas line is more than 3.0 points different from Zoltar’s prediction. Therefore, for week #20 Zoltar has one hypothetical suggestion.

Zoltar likes the Vegas underdog Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49ers. Zoltar thinks the 49ers are just a tiny 1 point better than the Packers, but Las Vegas thinks the 49ers are 7.5 points better than the Packers.

A bet on the Packers will pay off if the Packers win by any score or if the 49ers win but by less than 7.5 points (in other words, 7 points or fewer).

Update: Oops. I forgot to factor in the 49ers home field advantage. Zoltar retracts his recommendation on the Packers.

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Theoretically, if you must bet $110 to win $100 (typical in Vegas) then you’ll make money if you predict at 53% accuracy or better. But realistically, you need to predict at 60% accuracy or better.

In week #19 Zoltar went 0-1 against the Vegas point spread. Zoltar incorrectly liked the Vegas underdog Texans against the Chiefs. The Texans jumped off to a huge 21-0 lead and then . . . the rest of the game was not pretty for anyone who bet on the Texans.

For the 2019 season, through week #19, Zoltar is an OK 54-34 (61% accuracy) against the Vegas spread.

Just for fun, I track how well Zoltar and Las Vegas do when trying to predict only which team will win (but not by how much). This isn’t useful except for parlay betting.

Just predicting winners, Zoltar was a good 3-1. Las Vegas was also 3-1 last week. Both Zoltar and Vegas thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but the Titans won handily.

For the season, just picking winners, Zoltar is a pretty decent 176-85 (67%) and Vegas is also pretty good at 168-90 (65%).

Note: Vegas has fewer games than Zoltar because Vegas had three pick’em games. Also there was one tie game in week #1 (Lions at Cardinals).

My system is named after the Zoltar fortune teller machine. Here are two anonymous fortune tellers plus Rita Repulsa who appeared in an Internet image search for “fortune teller”. I think maybe the crystal-like ball in Rita’s staff influenced the result.